In the last article we talked about the most profitable Esports betting strategies, so if you did not read it already, make sure to check it out. In addition to that, we also promised to make an in-depth explanation of the arbitrage betting system, so here it is. Stick around and find out everything you need to know about Esports arbitrage betting strategy.
What is Arbitrage Esports Betting?
Arbitrage Esports betting strategy is arguably the best and the most effective betting strategy out there. It is the only strategy in which you are guaranteed to win whatever the outcome is. Your wager covers all the results of one Esports match to guarantee a profit regardless of the outcome.
The Origin of Arbitrage Esports Betting
Arbitrage betting comes from stock markets where investors use a similar strategy to make a profit. It involves purchasing an asset on one market and instantaneously selling it on another one for a small profit. This strategy is a risk-free profit for every trader that knows how to use it. When it comes to betting, of course, you can’t buy bets, but you can use multiple markets which is exactly what we are going to do. It is primarily based on inevitable inefficiencies in different markets.
How Does Arbitrage Betting Work?
This strategy is not for newbies and it requires a high knowledge of both Esports and betting. Luckily, it does not require any knowledge of the stock market itself. However, to fully understand arbitrage betting you also need to learn how do Esports betting odds work and what is probability. Also, make sure to check types of Esports odds as we will be using decimal odds to make this work.
The first thing you need to learn is the arbitrage formula. It is an easy formula that does not require any special mathematical knowledge. The formula for arbitrage percentage is:
A% = ((1/odds for outcome A) x 100) + ((1/odds for outcome B) x 100)
The key in this strategy is to find a match with A% less than 100%. Let’s take a Dota 2 match to explain this. If team A is playing against team B and team A are huge favourites the odds on them will be very low.
For example: Team A to win 1,20 (83,3% probability to win) – Team B to win 7,0 (14,3% probability to win).
Let’s use our formula now:
A% = ((1/1,20) x 100) + ((1/7,00) x 100)) = 83,3 + 14,3 = 97,6%.
In this example, A% is 97,6% which is less than 100%, and therefore, this is an arbitrage bet. In other words, this is a bet where you will make a profit. To calculate your profit use the following formula:
Profit = (Wager / A%) – Wager
If we bet $1000 on this event we will earn 1000/0,976 – 1000 = 1024,59 – 1000 = $24,59 pure profit.
Be aware that this is a risk-free bet with guaranteed profit so your wager can even be higher.
Another important thing is to know how much you should stake on each team to make this work. Therefore, we need to use another formula to calculate it precisely.
Stake Team = (Total Wager x Team A%) / Total A%
Stake Team A = (1000 x 83,3%) / 97,6%) = 853,48
Stake B = (1000 x 14,3%) / 97,6%) = 146,52
As you can see, 853,48 + 164,52 = $1000 which is our total stake. Our profit will be $24,59 in both case scenarios.
Getting Started – Multiple Markets
First of all, it is fundamental to use multiple markets, in this case, betting markets. Therefore, you should already have open accounts on multiple betting sites. The more accounts you have, the better. If you don’t know where to find Esports betting sites that are available in your country feel free to use the filter option on our homepage and it will list all the bookies available in your area. You will also get a generous first deposit welcome bonus on most of them.
After you have successfully opened multiple accounts it is time to find your first bet.
If you use to formulas provided above, it should be easy to find your first bet. Of course, odds on a single betting site will never meet our criteria. So, A% will never be less than 100 if you take the odds from only one betting site.
That’s why you need to have multiple accounts and compare the odds from multiple sites. Find a match you want to bet on and check the odds on all the sites you have opened accounts previously. Make sure to write them down and use the highest provided odds in the formula. If the A% result is less than 100%, congratulations, you just found your first arbitrage Esports bet.
To make this easier to understand let’s take a concrete example, the match between G2 and FaZe. After you have successfully checked all the sites you found two of them that stick out. The bookmaker A believes G2 will win that match and they offered 1,56 – 2,36. In the best-case scenario, bookmaker B will place FaZe as a favourite and give lower odds on them. Unfortunately, those kind of bets are really hard to find, so let’s be realistic and say the bookmaker B also believes G2 will win. However, they don’t think that G2 are complete favourites and they offer 1,76 – 2,00.
We need to take the best odds on both teams. In this case, we will use 1,76 on G2 (from bookmaker B) and 2,36 on FaZe (from bookmaker A). Let’s calculate it and see is it an arbitrage bet or not.
A% = 56,8 + 42,4 = 99,2% which is less than 100% so it is an arbitrage bet. Betting on this match won’t result in a huge profit because it is really close to 100%. However, it is still a profit. Try to spend more time and find a better match that will give a higher profit. I used this match as an example because it was the first arbitrage bet I could find at the time of writing this article.
Be that as it may, I personally may not earn a lot of money from this bet but this is your very first arbitrage bet so you are at an advantage. You can use welcome bonuses and double your first deposits on both sites so your profit will be significantly higher. Just make sure to use our filter and follow our affiliate links to get specialized welcome bonuses that are valid for all UpYourGame visitors.