Did you ever wonder how professional tipsters have so high ROI and total profit? Is it luck or is there something else? Well, luck is a big factor in the betting industry but knowledge and proper in-depth analysis are something that can make a difference. As this industry is based on statistics, predictions can increase your chances and statistics will be on your side.
Numbers Don’t Lie
Well, my former college professor used to say, numbers and statistics don’t lie, but mathematicians and statisticians do. And it is true, while numbers don’t like, bookmakers do and they will often give you offers that are just too good to be true. That’s why you need to analyze every match and know which team is more likely to win statistically. In order to do so, you need to look at their previous head to head matches.
Check out which team performed better in their head to head duels. For example, if you want to make a prediction for a match between FaZe and Astralis. Take into account all their matches in current rosters. Let’s say those two teams played 12 times in total. If FaZe won 7 matches just use the following formula. 7/12*100 = 58%. That means FaZe won 58% of their head to head duels in current rosters which leaves Astralis on 42%. Statistically speaking, FaZe has a higher chance to win that match. But your job isn’t over just yet. Astralis still won 42% of their matches and we need to analyze why is that? Was it just luck or is it something else? Well, it was something else and it is called the current form.
Current Form Can Prevail
To analyze the current form of one team you also have to look at their recent matches. However, this time you don’t look at head to head duels but recent matches of a single team vs various opponents. Don’t go too deep in the past, last two weeks or last five matches is enough. I personally prefer the last five matches because I can choose the last five matches vs Tier 1 opponents. Also, if it is a LAN match, I can just choose their last five matches on LAN. It is better to include as many factors as you can.
For example, if you adjust all the filters for a certain match and one team won 5 out 5 last matches it means they are in great shape and they are currently doing well. If that team is also the team who has a higher statistical chance, they will probably win that match and your job is done. In case of a better form of an underdog team, you need to analyze that match ever further because you may just found a dark horse with high odds.
Exclude statistics from the equation and check out only their last head to head match. If the underdog team won the last match and they are in the better current shape, just go for it. Surprises happen often in Esports betting world and you just need to find one.
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